Select a month
Openfield news
Seed News 3/2/2012 >3rd February 2012
Mercedes-Benz Actros go with the grain for Openfield >27th January 2012
Openfield signs deal to supply feed wheat to the United States >17th November 2011
Angus Cereals marks first consignment to leave £6.5m facility >26th October 2011
More news >OpenviewFebruary 3rd, 2012
Wheat futures
| 02/02/2012 | 7 days | 30 days | 90 days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12 | £167.90 | 3.50 | 20.20 | 2.50 |
| Nov 12 | £152 | 1.25 | 8.50 | 3.50 |
Currency
| £/$ | 1.5760 |
| £/Euro | 1.2044 |
| $/Euro | 1.3080 |
Interest rate
| Base | 0.50% |
Grain price indicator
| Feed Wheat | Feed Barley | Oilseed Rape | Oats | Pulses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February | £156 - £160 | £150 - £155 | |||
| March | £360 ex farm | £195 - £196 | |||
| April | £192 - £194 |
ZIRCON SPRING WHEAT
Zircon Spring Wheat Premium £30!
We need more growers of Zircon white wheat for planting this spring. The market for this variety is ever expanding and is exclusive to Openfield.
For further details please ring your Farm Business Manager before seed sells out!
Wheat
- Old and New crop grain prices rally
- Milling premiums hold
It has been an active week with both old and new crop grain prices advancing. It has been a heady mixture of weather and politics that have been driving prices. The weather `event` is the current cold snap originating in Siberia which has dropped temperatures into the minus twenties from the Baltic through mainland Europe into the Balkans and Black sea (some cynics have pointed out that it is February), with a low level of snow cover in many area`s there is concern over winterkill. In the UK ex farm feed wheat briefly touched £150 for autumn 2012 collection and ex crop £145, before retreating. Old crop, while improving has been more subdued as UK wheat prices itself out of the EU feed grains matrix and domestic processors continue with the hand to mouth cover.
Milling premiums remain in single figures, while the market had some disruption following a midlands miller calling in the receivers, the second in the sector in two weeks!
Outlook: The old crop wheat and barley markets are tightening up and the market is doing its job and pricing grain away from the ports. The bigger question is against what international back drop!
International
- International prices edge higher
- Russia considers export restrictions
- EU markets slow
International grain markets have rallied to levels last seen in the autumn of 2011, due to world weather issues and concerns of political intervention in the Black Sea region. Subsequently some of the gains were given back, but values are in positive territory over the week. Physical trading, especially in the EU is very, very slow. The cold weather in the EU has raised concerns over winterkill, but any damage will not be apparent until the spring. There is a general view that the lack of rain fall from September to December especially in the Ukraine will have done far more damage. In the US lack of precipitation is also causing concern, while flooding in the East of Australia could affect the corn crops.
Russian deputy priminister Viktor Zubkov has been considering if export restrictions will be needed from Russia in a response to rising domestic grain prices. Analysts estimate wheat exports have topped 20mmt to the end of January following the return to grain exports in the summer of 2011. It is estimated that 23 to 25mmt could be exported without affecting inflation in Russia, but the market is sending different signals. A decision had been expected on Friday (3/2) but the meeting has been postponed, and no new date has been confirmed.
EU trading has been slow; Iberian processors are receiving shipments under the TRQ import system, some from South America. French shippers are holding off making more sales, while the Co-op`s have been buying back hedges.
Outlook: Continued volatility (weather politics)
Oilseed Rape
- Indicative values: March 2012 £360 ex farm, Harvest 2012 £335 ex farm
- Fears of Winter Kill in Eastern Europe as temperatures fall
- Early soybean yield reports out of central Brazil have been mixed
Old-crop values remain flat as the lack of domestic crush interest coupled with reduced interest from mainland Europe cause prices to stagnate. The lack of support from the domestic crush coinciding with large quantities of Australian imports into Europe in the coming months could begin to test prices.
New-crop values conversely have firmed due to fears over freezing temperatures and lack of snow cover in Eastern and Northern Europe with temperatures forecast as low as -25 to -35 degrees Celsius. At the time of writing March is trading at £360 ex farm and as available movement has been trading between £335 and £340 ex farm.
Views on yield prospects for South American soybeans remain mixed; however there seems to be a consensus that rains over recent weeks in Argentina will improve the outlook for late planted soybeans. Early yield reports out of central Brazil have been mixed and given no clear indication on whether there is a significant production issue or not. All eyes will be on the yield reports as the combines progress southwards.
Drivers remain unchanged although the emphasis has shifted towards Eastern Europe in the short-term. South American weather and Chinese demand are where the biggest potential for price movement lies.
Oats
It is very hard to move spot oats as homes are now saying they are covered until April or May in some cases. Prices are a little off the top but still impressive values relative to the wheat price. Contracted oats are moving well on the whole as Mills keep their production moving and with the weather turning cooler it can only help the sale of Porridge Oats.
Pulses
Feed beans have failed to trade this week as sellers seek to take advantage of high Human Consumption prices being paid with the hope that they have better quality beans than feed. As most of the top quality beans are now sold, higher bruchid samples await buyers that can cope with this level of bruchid. It`s hard to call as we have seen in the past that they say they don`t want higher bruchid beans, only to see them come in later on. Feed bean prices have risen to try and prize them out but it is not working at present. The only thing to be aware of is that when human consumption beans are done and lower quality beans have not been sold, the feed market will ease. Peas still remain uninteresting with good blues now trading above Marrowfats but at levels that remain below the early season prices.
Malting Barley
UK Beer Market:
New figures released recently show UK beer sales continued to fall in 2011, although at a slower rate than in previous years. Pub sales declined by 3.4 per cent in 2011, the slowest rate since 2004, but which represents 139 million fewer pints enjoyed in British pubs. Off-trade beer sales were down 3.7 per cent over the year (136 million pints), the first time since 1996 (the year the European Championships were held in England) that the off-trade has put in a weaker performance than the on-trade. Total beer volumes fell by 3.5 per cent. This drop in beer sales equates to a reduction in demand of circa 24,000 tonnes of malting barley.
Ukraine Barley Crop:
Severe weather conditions in Ukraine is threatening barley crops; temperatures dropped to minus 29 degrees Celsius on Wednesday night, 50% of the crop lacked sufficient snow cover. The head of the agro-meteorology department stated `This temperature decline is very dangerous, especially for winter barley planted in the south, about half the barley sown will probably be lost if soil temperatures fall further`
Australian Barley Crop:
Although the Australian barley crop is reported as good, latest reports suggest that the official ABARE forecast of 8.5mmt is too high. Recent reports are suggesting that 8 million tonnes of barley were harvested this year with a malting barley selection rate of 40%. Therefore the total malting barley supply will be around 3.2 million tonnes for marketing year 2011/12. Domestic use (including stock requirements) will total 1 million tonnes which leaves exportable surplus of circa 2.2 million tonnes.
Fertiliser
The premise that `if you can`t measure it you can`t manage it` is very true, in particular when it comes to fertiliser and following the extremely dry climatic conditions we have experienced. Many growers are wondering just how much nitrogen they might already have remaining in their soil or taken up by the growing crops; As key distributor of GrowHow products, we are able to offer a solution to the question in the shape of N-Min soil sampling.
Seed
The cold weather snap has slowed down deliveries of seed to farm. New stocks of Tipple and Propino spring barley have come in but only limited quantities of Quench, Concerto and Westminster remain. Belvoir feed spring wheat and Group 2 Granary stocks are on the floor. An excellent contract is available for Zircon, the specialty white wheat for Weetabix offering an attractive premium of £30 per tonne over feed. Spring beans for human consumption, Fuego and Fury, are running short so please check availability now.
Wheat bulb fly egg-hatch is moving rapidly in East Anglia and north Lincolnshire with some initial plant invasion at the Suffolk and Lincolnshire sites. No egg-hatch has started in Yorkshire or Scotland. Check the Dow website for more information. http://www.dowagro.com/uk/cereal/pest.htm. Egg populations are low-moderate this year. Late drilled crops treated with Austral Plus should be reasonably well protected but monitor the need for follow-up sprays particularly in high risk locations.
Maize is now being ordered for spring drilling. Please call the seed office on Tel 01476 862638. if you need any help or advice on variety choice.
2012 Farmer Survey Coming Soon...
Over the next few weeks we will be sending out the 2012 Farmer Survey (e-mail) please make sure that you complete it once it has been received.
Thank You.
Arable Outlook Meetings
Next week we have two Arable Outlook Meetings:
07/02/2012 - Warwickshire College (Region: South & West)
09/02/1012 - Lincolnshire Showground (Region: Midlands & Eastern Counties)
For more information please see our `Diary Page`.
Disclaimer
While the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, Openfield makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes current opinion, which is subject to change.
| CMG | Network Grain | Velcourt Marketing Services Ltd | West Country Grain |