News

For some weeks now grain markets have been closely following the patterns of foreign exchange markets, if sterling gained against the Euro grain prices fell and when sterling weakened then grain values recovered. In the middle of this week this relationship was broken. Sterling has made gains against the Euro and grain prices have improved, at the same time the carry (difference between spot collection and summer collection) has widened. Why? The nearby market now feels comfortable is trading close to export parity, while the post Christmas market with the carry is at a premium. The market seems to be suggesting the exportable surplus will be shipped by the summer, a bold assumption when in August the country was a net importer. The milling market has lost a little ground week on week, with premiums for full spec group1 wheat slipping to £17 over feed at the point of delivery. Outlook: UK grain markets are trying to build a base and are likely to trade erratically in a range until more information on the fundamentals can be garnered.

Oilseed Rape

Nearby Matif has gained €3 over the course of the week with the domestic market remaining relatively static gaining a £1 over the week, as usual the bigger picture does not give the full picture of the week with a volatile sessions being driven by both STG and USD$ and the impact on their respective markets. The domestic market received a welcome boost this morning following the report issued by the Office National Statistics showing that the UK economy shrank by 0.4% in the 3rd quarter rather than growing 0.2% as widely anticipated a move which would signal that the UK had emerged from recession. STG lost 2% immediately after the report which reverses the 6% it had gained against the €uro in the last 7 trading sessions. Overseas market news has seen US Soybeans trade in line with the USD$, any weakness prompting investors to buy dollar assets and conversely any weakness prompting sales. Weather has not been completely out of the picture with rain hampering harvest efforts adding some support although the tight supply situation has now switched to yield concern. Snow has been forecast for next week which could prove supportive on this basis. We have also seen crude oil touch a 12month high trading just over $81 a barrel-again helped by a weaker USD$. Reports are also showing that South American soybeans are being drilled currently with Argentina planning to sow a record 19Mn hectares of the crop for early 2010 harvest. China has released some economic data showing GDP growth of 8.9% which could translate into further support for oilseeds as with economic expansion comes further wealth creation increasing demand for commodities. A report this morning also shows that they have halted imports of Canadian canola following traces of the fungal disease �€�blackleg�€� in a cargo. The EU meeting that was held on Monday to discuss the EU�€�s stance on GM contaminated seed and admix has postponed its ruling until next Monday.

Seed

Although autumn drilling could continue for another month in some areas, attention seems to be moving to spring cropping options.

Human consumption peas are proving popular due to the high contract values. Seed is very short with some varieties already sold out, so act now if interested.

Linseed values have rocketed due to a GM scare in the Canadian crop and if sustained we could see a considerable plantings of this crop, Openfield have good seed supplies of both brown and yellow types.

Zircon and Paragon spring wheats are selling well and half the available area is now placed of each. Good buy backs available on both.

On the winter front we still have a selection of wheats suitable for late sowing with buy backs available, with most dressing combinations available.

Malting Barley

Malting barley markets have seen a change of fortune this week with new crop strengthening as European consumers look to buy follow the trend in the grains market. Having seen such little activity over recent months, and a price level that has been pressured beyond most people�€�s imaginations there is a real reluctance from the farm gate to sell into the firmer trend, whilst levels bid do not guarantee most producers a return. It will take time to see if this is a sustained rally on the back of genuine malt and barley buying interest or just a reaction to firmer agricultural indexes.

Fertiliser

GrowHow NPK grades have now been published. These grades are true granular compounds which means even application of nutrients to 24 metres and above with a correctly calibrated spreader. There are a number of grades to suit different situations such as NK Sulphur 27N 0P 6K + 6SO3, use this grade in situations involving high soil P levels and generally higher K levels, or where sewage sludge has been applied. Environmental concerns traditionally centred on Nitrates, now extend to Phosphate loss and its effect on water quality, thus this product reflects the growing demand for zero Phosphate fertiliser. Next week we`ll take a look at Heartland Sulphur 24N 8P 8K + 8SO3. For details on the full range of GrowHow Granular Compounds please speak to your Farm Business Manager.

Pulses

Beans, following a good week last week market has reached a plateau and stalled with minimal trade being done at similar levels to last week. Spring premiums remain at £7-£8 depending on location. In the short term both feed and premium homes are now largely satisfied with indicative values of £116-£120 ex farm for feed and £125-£130 ex farm for springs, dependant on location. Export opportunities have moved away again with the recent strength in STG. Peas, remain a quiet market place with little change over the week. Marrowfats remain well supported; trading at £320+, growers with quality samples are encouraged to contact their Openfield buyer

Oats

Market remains stagnant this week following the recent business done by the millers. Spot deliveries remain full and following this recent round which now means January is now a more realistic window for movement. Market remains void of interest for feed quality product, for now export opportunities remain remote the gains in the currency.

Disclaimer

While the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, Openfield makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes current opinion, which are subject to change.