News

There is little doubt that the world has enough wheat, however it has even more money. This was one of the themes put forward at a world cereal conference. This point of view has been supported by actions in the CBOT wheat futures market with solid gains this week as speculators buy wheat futures whilst physical wheat fails to find any takers. Exports from the US are currently 30% behind last year although they do have less to dispose of. Egypt has bought a further 175K of wheat for early 2010 delivery, Russia is to ship one cargo while France and Germany will also ship a cargo, the first shipment from Germany for some time. EU export certificates for the week were 156k and are now running 25% lower than last season as Black sea supplies continue to feed the world with Brazilian wheat waiting in the wings. In an interesting move Brussels have suggested that they will start exporting intervention stocks as part of a `social assistance` program although exact details are not yet available, but with grain flooding into intervention stores is this a new form of export subsidy? Outlook: Continued volatility.

Wheat

Wheat exports top 400K
Grain prices hold
Milling wheat market moribund

Grain prices have held up well as sterling advances against the Euro; although the shift in relative values compared with the near continent has seen several more wheat export shipments bought back for re sale onto the domestic market. Customs & excise export statistic show that 172K was exported in September taking the season total to 438K. Imports for the same period however, stand at 426K, 10K less than the exports! There is a wide spread view that imports will drop off, as millers use more home grown supplies as there are ample supplies available. The milling wheat market has had another slow week and premiums are unchanged. Outlook: UK wheat is going it`s own sweet way at the moment; with an estimated 1.5 to 2 mln mt (depending on the Ensus ethanol facility start up) and a net 10k of exports to the end of September, it going to be an interesting winter!

Malting Barley

Old crop continues to trades intermittently through the Jan / Mar positions. In the nearby barley / malt logistics dominate delivery programmes with contract extensions enforced and cash-outs common place.

New crop has remained static during the week as buyers try to cover supplies at discounted levels. There is now a definite pricing barrier where by the first hand seller will not release supplies until the cost of production is met.

Fertiliser

The contrast from one year to the next can often be dramatic, and no more so that the establishment of Oilseed Rape Crops this Autumn compared to last year. Crops were barely established last year and didn`t move until late March. This time around we have some well established forward looking crops already, this will pose a challenge as we start to think about N management in Spring 2010. These crops will have taken up far more N than last year`s crop did at this stage. There will be a certain amount of Winter kill, but that N will be lost to the crop as it progresses through the growing season. GrowHow N-Min® and N Calc® can help with Spring N Management by accurately measuring soil mineral N while giving you a very accurate estimate of the amount of N that will become available to the crop over the growing season. There will be more details of this useful service and how to order an N-Min ® test in the coming weeks

Oilseed Rape

Volatile few days for markets across the board this week. Matif has gained €6 to the time of writing with the domestic market gaining £7 in the same period. Trade has been dictated by movements in STG and outside influences, predominantly US soy harvest news and movements in the USD$. We have also seen some return of interest from the domestic crusher for seed to complete this calendar year`s requirement. STG has been a key influence this week, firstly receiving a shot in the arm following an inflation report, published Tuesday, which showed that inflation had risen to 1.5% 0.1% above expectations. This strength was then undone following the publishing of the Bank of England monetary policy committee meeting minutes the following day which showed that the vote was 7-1-1 with 7 voting for no change to policy, 1 voting for a reduction and 1 vote for an increase. Key part of the statement was a surprise quote that �uro;�lowering the bank deposit rate may be useful in the future, thus implying concern remains. US market news has again played a part. Harvest in the mid west has again been hampered with poor weather which has lead to some short term cover being taken, supporting the market. The wet weather is continuing to delay the corn harvest and this has focussed attention on mould levels in corn that has been delivered recently, the indirect result being better soy meal demand which is being sort as a replacement. A weaker USD$ mid week and active fund trading have also helped as did a surprise fall in crude stock levels which had fallen 3.4Mn barrels against an expected slight increase on the week. However this support has been waning Friday following a slightly firmer USD$ and fall of 3% in Crude levels. We have also seen news this week from South America were concern has been growing over the very dry conditions currently experienced. There was a further reduction in production estimates, now standing at 48Mn tonnes which bring total reductions to 4Mn tonnes over the last 3 weeks. Further delays to planting in Argentina will continue to impact on production ideas and will have an impact on supply & demand figures.

Pulses

Beans, have had a quiet trading week with prices remaining static. We have seen sellers start to move away form the market now having had a period of good trade volumes, suggesting short term marketing aspirations have been met. With this in mind it is likely that prices will begin to ease back as is usually the case. The volatility in the currency markets has not helped with exports as continental buyers are dissuaded from trading in such circumstances. Human consumption premiums have narrowed with springs now typically fetching £7-£8 premium dependant on location, this narrowing stemming from the lack of demand from Egyptian homes. New crop levels have been trading at £120ex for November. Peas, market remains for bleached samples with values between £140ex to £170ex depending on % bleached and of course location.

Oats

Oats, trade is being conducted at these lower levels albeit in thin volumes. Indicative levels at the time of writing give values at or around £80 ex farm. Movement opportunities are now realistically February onwards with pre Christmas completely covered. Export opportunities remain scarce and with recent currency volatility this is likely to remain.

Seed

Winter wheat sales continue in most areas with Cordiale, Einstein, Grafton, Humber, Oakley, Viscount, and XI-19 still in demand. We have stocks of these and other varieties with a choice of dressings available for prompt dispatch.

For those who may need to plant in the spring Zircon remains first choice for our breakfast cereal market and can be drilled through to March. Paragon is also available with a buy-back contract please contact your Openfield or UAP business manager.

There is considerable interest in Linseed again with the recent surge in the product price and Human Consumption Pea contracts are becoming scare as growers move out of spring barley.

recent surge in the product price and Human Consumption Pea contracts are becoming scare as growers move out of spring barley.

Disclaimer

While the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, Openfield makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes current opinion, which are subject to change.