News

The international wheat market has taken a breather as funds reduced their commodity buying and values are largely unchanged. Fundamental issues, of course continue. Stats Canada have issued their crop estimate this week at 26.5mln mt a whopping 2 mln more than last month, this will just add to world ending stocks and goes some way to explain why the Canadians have been very keen sellers of late. In the Southern Hemisphere the Australian harvest is under way but has been suffering delays due to rain. This has caused some wire chatter about quality but there is a long way to go & harvesting will not finish until early February. In Argentina the situation reads like the bible; following the severe drought farmers are now racing to spray fields against an outbreak of locusts!

Outlook: Wheat fundamentals remain negative; however for the moment inflation hedging will hold prices.

Wheat

Grain market moribund
New crop trading picks up
Milling premiums hold

It has been very slow in grain markets and there is a dearth of fresh news. Daily price fluctuations are a function of foreign exchange movements and continued inflation hedging in commodities by funds. Export activity is slow and loading has been hampered by the inclement weather. The domestic market has seen some limited buying activity for spring delivery, although not enough to lift values. The milling premiums for 2010 delivery are holding at £18 to £20 over feed at the point of delivery, although for spot collection the premium is £2 to £4 lower. As the shooting season is in full swing there has been a reasonable amount of new crop trade taking place with values of feed wheat for autumn 2010 at £109 to £111 ex farm. Many growers see this as a level to lock in some profits, a thought that we would endorse for a proportion of anticipated production.

Outlook: The market looks set to be dominated by outside factors in the short term. However the wheat fundamentals are bearish, while the world corn situation remains in balance.

Oilseed Rape

What promised to be a good week has largely disappointed. Matif has gained just a €1 over the course with the domestic market remaining static with STG firming from Monday. Following on from a strong finish to US markets late last Friday and with a weaker STG following the Dubai world issues from last week and above estimate export numbers, not to mention the beginning of a new month (fresh fund inflows), expectations were high. We started the week on a stronger note as better export numbers were digested however, when fresh capitals flows failed to materialise concern spread and markets have since eased back.

Domestically the crushers have remained subdued although we have seen some new crop year business done. US markets have again impacted with a firmer dollar over the latter stages of the week dissuading buyers of US$ denominated assets contributing to weakness in soybeans and crude oil. We have also seen stocks of both crude and gasoline rise by 2Mn and 4Mn barrels respectively over the week. Domestic US demand has also been in focus with production pipelines full the only support being that export numbers remain healthy. Last week`s numbers show 1.13Mn bushels for export which was above trade estimates for 800k-1Mn bushels.

A black cloud on the horizon could be some recent reports from CNGOIC suggest that Chinese crushers are covered for US beans through to March which does seem at odds to those export inspections figures as above, however will undoubtedly lend a bearish tone to ideas. South America remains in a weather market with values falling sharply now that more favourable weather conditions are aiding planting and soil moisture following the very dry conditions seen earlier in the season. STATSCAN`s latest report on the Canadian canola showed Canadian production to be at the upper end of market estimates at 11.85Mn tonnes a full 1Mn tonnes (10%) above its previous month`s number. Initially the crop was thought to produce 9.5Mn tonnes earlier in the year which lent support to EU markets, later revisions put the figure back up to 10.3Mn tonnes with yesterday`s report weighing. Bank of England MPC meet next Thursday, no change in rates is anticipated although a close attention will be paid to any comment on the quantitative easing programme and any update made on the economic outlook.

Oats

Oat markets remain stagnant. There is no export interest and little to no interest for feed quality product. Prices are effectively being eroded as the market values remain static but movement periods are moving further out, realistically March is now the earliest movement opportunity.

Pulses

Beans have seen some export interest return this week and this, coupled with some shorts that remain in the market, have helped to push prices £2-£3 firmer. Interest in Springs has waned which has brought premiums back down to £7-£8 depending on location. For Peas we have some limited space on 2010 Blue pea buybacks coupled with our Kabuki buyback. Please speak with your Openfield farm business manager for further information.

Fertiliser

Don`t forget that if you order a minimum of 10.2 tonnes of GrowHow products between now and 31st March 2010 you will be automatically entered into the Nitram 45 year celebration prize draw. The prize is 45 bags ( 600 Kg bags ) 27 tonnes of Nitram. The draw takes place in April 2010 and the winner announced in the Farmers Weekly.

Seed

Yesterdays release of the 2010 / 2011 CEL Recommended lists saw several wheat`s and 2 new OSR varieties listed.

Wheat

KWS Sterling and Kingdom are added to Group 2 milling but will require miller support to take significant market share as their yield and agronomy do not add to what is currently available and Cordiale is so well established with the end users.
In the Group 3 sector Invicta and Warrior do offer improvements in yield (Invicata ) and disease resistance ( Warrior ).

Oilseed Rape

DK Cabernet tops the list for East and West regions, although aconventional variety equals the output of the top hybrid, with strong agronomic characters. Fashion although offering a yield improvement on last years conventional varieties seems destined to live in Cabernets shadow.
Dimension remains the best overall hybrid with a healthy 6% advantage over the control. Due to the failure of most trials in the North region all candidates were deferred for a year so the list remains unchanged with Catana as the first choice conventional type.

We will be sending you details of our offer by post next week. All varieties listed above are available now from Openfield or UAP, please ring your local contact to reserve a supply.

Disclaimer

While the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, Openfield makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes current opinion, which are subject to change.