News

In the light of significant moves in foreign exchange and equities markets following comments about naked short selling of German Euro derivatives, grain trading has been on the back burner. There has been no significant news in the wheat complex and values are drifting. Moisture in Eastern Europe has alleviated concerns about the growing crop in those areas although there is growing anxiety about some spring sown crops. COFCO the Chinese state owned grain trader confirmed that they have bought more corn from the US, it is now estimated that 8 to 10 cargoes are to be shipped equating to approximately 600K. Corn prices are still bumping around recant lows having given back the gains of two weeks ago. Outlook: Continued volatility.

Wheat

March UK wheat exports top 300K
Grain values edge higher
Milling market moribund

Grains have recovered much of last week`s losses as exporters continue to find markets for old crop despite stronger sterling against the euro. Old crop wheat is changing hands between £103 & £105 ex farm for between crop collection as consumers start to take some cover. The consumer`s change of heart was prompted by the release of the March export figures which topped 300K, taking total exports for the season to 1.73mln MT. The biggest taker is Spain once again, with the Philippines (one vessel) in second place. Third country export data still looks light and a revision of the data would not come as a great surprise. Imports were a more routine 89K taking the total for the season to 920K which is starting to make the DEFRA/HGCA total import look a little light.

The milling wheat market is moribund with premiums unchanged at £15 to £17 over feed at the point of delivery. Millers seem to be reluctant to take all of their purchases and are looking to roll forward May contracts.

Outlook: Old crop is now being priced off the domestic market for the first time in weeks but it is difficult to gauge the depth of the buying. New crop is back to recent highs and represents a selling opportunity.

Oilseed Rape

The domestic Old crop market remains supported by tight supply with a limited number of sellers in the Market. Prices traded in a £7 range over the week spiking at £265 ex farm with movements in the currency markets adding to the volatility. The tight supply with continued volatility in such a thin market is likely to see prices remain firm.

New crop harvest prices have been trading between £240-245, but have seen few sellers [target price of £250] over concerns of crop quality, exacerbated by the lack of precipitation. There have been mixed reports on crop condition with some areas reporting concerns over slow flowering, lack of podding, and potential damage from the recent frosts. The suggestions of a 1-3% yield loss due to frost damage would give a potential crop reduction of 20/40k MT. The market carry between Harvest/November of £10 supports storage.

The Matif remains volatile this week with gains being seen in the early sessions followed by a marked fall on the back of profit taking in the latter sessions. At the time of writing, the Matif is down €4.50 on the week.

Outlook: Old crop likely to remain firm with UK Harvest 7/8 weeks away with around 5 weeks before French seed becomes available. New crop is likely to come under pressure as harvest approaches

Pulses

After the price rising £15 per tonne for feed beans during the course of the month buyers have withdrawn for the time being. Prices have dropped to a theoretical £10 off the top, with values now in the £145-148 range. Supply and demand will rule the price but buyers are trying to keep prices as low as they can. The possible lateness of harvest could be another factor as we progress through the year.

New crop feed had eased in value earlier in the week but a weaker £ at end of week have lifted prices again. Little or no farm trade and dry weather is causing some concern in certain areas. New Crop premiums for human consumption beans are being valued between £5 and £15 depending on variety and location. Odd bleached blues are being sold as feed to clear old crop stocks while some of the better samples may be rolled into new crop. There is little or no business on new crop with farmer resistance to sell at lower levels being indicated.

Oats

Old crop oats are trading around the £70-75 mark depending on location and remain unchanged yet again. New crop is trading for harvest at £75-£80, with location being the key for higher prices. Enquiries for export are around but there are no UK trades being reported so far which would indicate cheaper offers from other origins. Exports are expected to start soon with a few cargoes leaving the South coast at harvest

Seed

Openfield and UAP are hosting various Winter Cereals and Oilseed Rape Demonstrations for further details please contact Openfield seed offices

Midlands and Eastern 01476 862702 - Southern 01264 321572 - Northern 01937 848119

27th May - Openfield and UAP Oilseed Rape trials - Woeful Lake Farm, Sherborne, Glous GL54 3PR - 5 - 7 pm

16th June - Openfield Winter Wheat Varieties - Wakerley Central Trials Site, Nr Wakerley, Stamford, Lincs LE15 8PA - Time TBA

23rd June - Openfield and UAP Winter Wheat and Oilseed Rape Varieties - interaction with nitrogen and fungicide programmes - Warren Farm, Crawley, Hants SO21 2PW, guided tours

24th June - Openfield Winter Cereals Demonstration - Hutton Wandersley, York YO26 7LL - 10 am

28th June - Openfield and UAP Winter Wheat Varieties - interaction with nitrogen and fungicide programmes - Rushbourne Manor, Hoath, Kent CT3 4JP various tour times

29th June - Openfield and UAP Winter Wheat Varieties - Woeful Lake Farm, Sherborne, Glous GL54 3PR various tour times

1st July - Openfield and UAP Winter Wheat Varieties - interaction with nitrogen and fungicide programmes - Gypsy Corner Farm, Chilshill, Royston, Herts SG8 8PE - 1.30 pm - 5.00 pm

6th July - Openfield and UAP Winter Wheat Varieties / fungicide interations - Low Toynton, Horncastle, Lincs LN9 6JU - Time TBA

Fertiliser

The Top up market continues, and some requirements for the grassland market are coming forward as silage making begins.

The Urea market is slowly starting for new season but there is little clarity in the market as to a pricing level.

Currency issues especially Sterling against the US Dollar are making the market very difficult to assess.

The market will become a lot clearer over the next few weeks as European Ammonium Nitrate producers publish their prices

Disclaimer

While the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, Openfield makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes current opinion, which are subject to change.