News

It has been a busy week in International wheat markets. A dip early in the week saw Egypt tender for August shipment. The result was a sale of 120K to be supplied from Russia, the price was circa $30 higher than their previous purchase on the 7th July.

The bears viewed this as negative but import tenders from Algeria and Iraq quickly followed suit and supported the market. Iraq bought 350K from Romania, Australia, Canada & Russia whilst Algeria took 300K from France. This was enough to lift values back to unchanged.

Midweek saw newswire reports that Russia is to release wheat intervention stocks onto the domestic markets to help compounders. As we are in the height of harvest this was seen as bullish and values took another step upwards.

In the EU harvest is moving forward slowly, but availability issues are the main driver in the spot positions as Spain still wait for shipments from Bulgaria and Romania. The UK has been able to clear old crop stocks and keep the Spanish going while Dutch and German importers have been buying UK feed wheat supplies for shipment through to summer 2011.

Outlook: There is a big weather premium in grain markets now; but the situation is serious enough that local political issues (protecting inflation) will become a factor! More volatility is assured!

Wheat

Grain markets volatile
Brisk export trade
Domestic users re-enter the market

It has been a very volatile week in the cereal market with daily trading ranges exceeding £5/mt on more than one occasion. The week started slowly with rumours of ships finally being loaded in the Balkan States which was enough to knock £5/mt off prices on Tuesday morning.

At this point the UK consumer came back to the market for the first time in weeks. This activity lifted values back into positive territory by the end of the day. As the week went on renewed export buying returned to the UK with spot interest to the Iberian peninsular who are still awaiting shipments and domestic supplies.

Forward export buying came from Northern Europe with sales through to summer 2011. This interest drove ex farm feed wheat into the mid £130`s for summer collection. The milling market remains slow.

Outlook: Continued volatility.

Oilseed Rape

Early UK Yield reports mixed
Shrinking foreign Rapeseed estimates

Harvest prices remain firm trading in the £275 to £280 ex farm range with an £8-£10 carry to November. The market continues to be driven by the weather with a reduction in forecast crop sizes in France, Germany, Russia, Ukraine and Canada impacting the domestic market. Domestic yield reports have been mixed ranging from 2.5t ha to 4t ha but it is still too early to make a judgement as harvest is not yet in full swing. With next week shaping up to be the `big week` for harvest, next week`s yield reports will be fundamental to the market.

The Matif is down on the week at the time of writing; with the August contract down €2, €10 down from last Thursdays 22 month reported high. The Canadian Canola futures continued to rally with the November position closing at an annual high of £286 (C$459.20).

Outlook: With the weather driving the market coupled with domestic yield uncertainty, the outlook in the short term remains bullish.

Oats

New crop values rising due to continued adverse weather as other commodities firm in price. Indicative harvest prices of £95 dependent on area. As with the previous week there has been little volume traded. Harvest has begun in the south but there has been no feedback as to its quality.

Pulses

New crop feed bean prices began the week down but ended up with September values trading at £136 ex farm. Prices continue to follow wheat although farmers are still reluctant sellers until they can gauge both yield and quality. Quality is the key as a higher proportion of feed beans would lead to the need to find export homes as the domestic feed homes have a finite demand.

Latest crop bulletin from PGRO warns `Aphid numbers have increased rapidly in the last week which may cause yield loss and shrivelled seeds where there is still some pod fill`

Fertiliser

This week has seen a very similar situation to the previous week. A strong grain market has encouraged growers to continue to cover more Nitrogen rather than sitting on the fence until after harvest.

With stronger indications from GrowHow that September and October offers will be close to £220 per tonne for Nitram â many have taken the opportunity to cover now at lower levels.

Don`t forget to help meet the challenge of producing more and impacting less, don`t just think Nitrogen, think Sulphur too, Double Top â from GrowHow can improve your cereal yields by 9%.

Seed

Another interesting week with escalating grain prices and better than expected harvest results with some outstanding yields, especially of hybrid barleys.

Hybrid rape varieties are dominating the early order book (46% of total) with Dimension closely followed by DK Expower being the big sellers whilst conventional sales are led by Sesame & Grandia. Many Cabernet growers however are waiting for their harvest results before deciding on whether to buy seed to continue producing it.

We start processing seed barley next week so please get your orders in early to ensure availability.

For all your seed enquiries please contact your Openfield FBM or the seed office on 01476 862694.

Disclaimer

While the information contained herein is believed to be reliable, Openfield makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Any statement non-factual in nature constitutes current opinion, which are subject to change.