Navigating an uncertain world

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Openfield experts look at the impact of changes in agricultural policy, disruption to supply chains and the global phosphate fertiliser market

As the world starts focusing in on the size of the 2026/27 global crops and their quality potential, in a fertiliser deprived world, it highlights the uncertainty that is caused by changes in agricultural policies and the lack of control most nations have when conflict disrupts supply chains. I have spent much time anticipating the impact that SFI rule changes will have on land drilled to crops in the UK and the size of the national crops. Unfortunately, I believe it’s probably wasted time because there are too many moving parts. It’s almost impossible to work out how many farms are coming to the end of their current contracts and what they plan to do next – new scheme or real crops? With no data capture to show how may hectares came out of crops when the schemes started it’s tough to now work out what may suddenly come back into viable production. But similarly, there will be new applicants but will one off set the other? The fact is nobody really has a clue and Government don’t seem to be concerned but is it an acknowledgement that maybe environmental schemes are a luxury that is tough to justify when the world supply chains are forcing up the cost of living and the costs of producing / importing almost everything.

On the back of increased prices and a shortage of some supplies, the risk of threats and vulnerabilities can easily increase. In the supply chain these come under the heading of TACCP and VACCP and are a mandatory requirement in almost all food safety standards globally. At this point it is worth sharing a phrase with you from the FAO / WTO – ‘if its nots safe it’s not food’ and I would go one step further and say, ‘if it’s not safe it’s not food or feed.’ You as growers are fully aware of this, and legislation is in place to ensure we are all doing the right things to protect the food we produce and transport, but I feel it’s time for us all to keep our eyes open more and our ears to the ground.

The UK arable supply chain is TASCC assured and this compliments the Red Tractor and SQC assurance and means arable products are traceable and comply with food and feed safety legislation, but it doesn’t mean issues can’t arise either through human error or by fraudulent individuals. It surprises me how many farmers don’t check their paperwork with the haulier when they arrive on farm to collect a load – ultimately loading a lorry with 29mt of goods in faith seems rather unwise but believe me it does happen. A classic is a lorry turns up on the wrong farm and is loaded with questions only asked when another lorry turns up for the original load. Please don’t assume anything and check, it takes minutes but saves hours of stress. Similarly, please consider grain store safety – lock silo doors because malicious people do exist and rather like oil tanks, crops and inputs can disappear or be tampered with. Most arable supply chain threats and vulnerabilities are avoidable but not having product be it fertiliser or fuel for tractors or lorries or having to pay inflated prices adds an uncertainty to everyone not just from a cost perspective, but in some supply chains quality of product can start to come under increasing scrutiny and corners can be cut. There is much that goes on to protect integrity of product coming off UK arable farms to ensure it is safe for food and feed but it relies on us all to do our part correctly from the moment the crops are planted to the point of consumption but what many forget is it is also happening globally, after all with a global population of 8.3 Billion we all survive because legislation makes sure food is safe.

Fertiliser matters

The global phosphate fertiliser market is experiencing a further period of disruption, driven by geopolitical conflict, export restrictions, and structural supply constraints. Morocco, the world’s largest exporter, has brought forward its maintenance schedule, with output expected to fall by around 30% in the fourth quarter. This reduction alone represents a significant loss of global supply at a time when replacement tonnes are already restricted.

China, the second-largest exporter, continues to maintain a strict export ban until August 2026, aimed at protecting domestic supply and controlling internal prices. Chinese producers may further reduce operating rates due to persistently high raw material costs, potentially tightening global supply even further.
Saudi Arabia, the third-largest exporter, has been severely impacted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Against this backdrop of tightening availability, India has made a notable move by announcing a tender for 1.2 million tonnes of diammonium phosphate (DAP) and 400,000 tonnes of triple superphosphate (TSP). This is a significant volume and highlights growing concern over availability.
For anyone that has requirements for OSR planting it would be advisable to cover tonnes as firm prices look set to continue.