Current market reflects complex global situation
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Weather, geopolitical disruption and declining global stocks continue to impact the grain markets, while growers are already looking ahead to next season when it comes to fertiliser planning.
Recent developments in global grain markets reflect a complex mix of improving supply, weather-driven risks, and geopolitical disruption. The overall theme entering 2026 is divergence between crops, comfortable but uneven global stocks, and heightened sensitivity to weather and trade flows. One of the most notable recent developments is the clear divergence between wheat and feed grains (corn and soybeans). USDA projections indicate that corn and soybean supplies remain relatively abundant, supported by strong yield potential and large prior harvests which has helped keep prices contained despite solid demand. In contrast, wheat markets are tightening, largely due to adverse weather conditions in key producing areas such as the U.S. Plains, parts of the Black Sea region, and reduced yields and lower production expectations in major exporting countries.
While recent harvests, particularly in 2025, generated record or near-record output, resulting in high inventories, there are early signs that the global balance sheet is becoming tighter. USDA projections suggest declining global ending stocks for key crops in 2026/27, especially for soybeans and wheat, reflecting strong demand and production risks. Even corn, which remains relatively well supplied, is expected to see reduced stocks compared to previous years. This shift marks a transition from surplus-driven markets to more balanced conditions, increasing the importance of marginal changes in weather, acreage, and yields. Weather continues to be a dominant influence on grain markets. Recent drought conditions in US winter wheat-growing regions tightened supply expectations and pushed prices higher, while normal weather assumptions underpin large corn and soybean crops. Markets are increasingly reactive to short-term forecasts, with weather premiums building into wheat prices more quickly than in other grains.
The Black Sea region remains central to global grain pricing and trade flows, accounting for a significant share of wheat and corn exports. However, ongoing Russia–Ukraine and Middle Eastern conflicts continue to disrupt logistics and exports, introducing volatility into the global market. Ukrainian grain exports have been significantly constrained by attacks on port infrastructure and logistical bottlenecks, with shipments down sharply year-on-year in 2025/26. This has reduced available supply to global markets and increased reliance on other exporters. Meanwhile, Russia remains the dominant wheat exporter, although output and export policies continue to influence global price benchmarks. Demand for grains remains robust, underpinned by feed use, biofuel production, and steady global consumption growth. Corn demand continues to be supported by ethanol and livestock sectors, while soybean trade is heavily influenced by Chinese import demand and South American competition. Global trade flows are evolving. Buyers in North Africa and the Middle East remain heavily reliant on Black Sea wheat, Asian importers are diversifying supply origins and African demand for wheat continues to grow steadily. These trends contribute to a more fragmented and competitive global trade environment. Looking ahead, grain markets are entering a phase characterised by moderate supply adequacy but tightening buffers, high sensitivity to weather shocks, ongoing geopolitical risks impacting trade flows, and diverging performance between crops. Corn and soybeans are likely to remain capped by ample supplies, while wheat prices could stay supported due to tighter fundamentals and higher risk exposure. Overall, the market tone is one of cautious balance rather than surplus, with volatility likely to persist. In summary, recent grain market developments highlight a shift away from oversupply toward a more fragile equilibrium. Weather, geopolitics, and demand trends are now exerting greater influence, creating a more complex and responsive pricing environment across global grain markets.
Fertiliser matters
As harvest approaches, many growers will already be planning for next season’s crops. With some autumn drilling not beginning until mid-to-late September, the post-harvest period provides an ideal opportunity to assess soil pH and address any liming requirements. Regular soil testing every three to five years, or annually on a rotational basis, enables growers to monitor pH levels and identify issues before they begin to impact crop performance. It is important to note that significant variation can exist between fields, making regular testing essential. When soil pH falls below target levels, nutrient availability is reduced, limiting crop uptake, yield potential and overall profitability. For example, with a standard 27-4-4 NPK fertiliser, nutrient availability can fall to around 75% at a soil pH of 5.5, reducing the return on every tonne applied. Applying granulated lime ahead of autumn drilling can help correct pH deficiencies, improve nutrient efficiency, encourage root development and support crop establishment. Taking the time to assess soil pH after harvest allows growers to make informed decisions, maximise fertiliser performance and give crops the strongest possible foundation for a productive season ahead.
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