How will wheat imports be affected this year?

After a very wet year in 2024, followed by this year’s drought, will Westminster sit up and listen? And what should you do to lay the foundations for your next crop?

The old adage “you get what you get and you don’t get upset” is a hard one to swallow when mother nature kicks you hard as a farmer, writes Cecilia Pryce, Openfield’s head of research, compliance and shipping. There is little many farmers can do to protect themselves against the vagaries of the changing weather but maybe, just maybe, the impact that this year’s drought alongside last year’s wet will shake those in Westminster to realise that taking land out of production and relying on the remaining land to yield better, is not a great way to feed the country.

Our reliance on imports is likely to yet again be front and central. If you match this with the data black hole – how much land was drilled to crops – and the uncertainties of yield, then you have the makings of uncertainty which usually results in increased price volatility.

The reality is that global prices have hit new contract lows and taken the UK markets with them, even though farmers are struggling to cover the cost of production – let alone bank a margin. Something is well and truly broken, but exactly what and how you repair it needs addressing fast. If we carry on like this the government may eventually have to pay farmers to grow the arable crops we need, and who knows, they may even have to start buying State reserves. Could we be close to revisiting the agricultural policies of the late 1980s and early 1990s? It’s so difficult to say, but the status quo is looking unmanageable.

Imports of wheat this year could be surprisingly different from 2024/25. Last year we saw close to three million tonnes imported and this season it could be closer to two million tonnes, but the quality profile may be different. With the current quality of the UK wheat crop hitting the specifications required by the milling industry, I would expect the percentage of UK wheat in the milling grist to increase back towards 80% creating around 500,000 tonnes of extra demand for UK wheat that wasn’t seen last year.

Similarly, the anticipation of a bigger crop year on year (subject to yields) alongside the uncertainty around the ethanol facilities should also reduce the need for mainland UK to import any feed grains. The demand for grains into Northern Ireland is uncertain, it’s historically fed by the mainland but this year may end up being serviced by other EU origin grains, which will directly increase the total wheat imports into the UK. Much can and is likely to change, but it’s another year to keep close to the price of grain and watch the trade flows.

Fertiliser matters

Post-harvest is an ideal time to assess nutrient off take and set the foundations for your next crop. As crops are removed, essential nutrients such as phosphate and potash are also taken from the soil, explains Openfield fertiliser trader Gemma King.

Potassium is key to water regulation and plant strength, while phosphate supports root development and energy transfer. Nutrient imbalances can restrict uptake, reduce yields, limit crop potential and result in financial losses.

Soil sampling provides a cost-effective, reliable snapshot of soil health, identifying key nutrient levels and pH. Having the correct pH is crucial. If your soils are below optimal pH levels it would limit nutrient availability, reduce yield and cause financial implications. Testing pH helps determine if lime application is needed to correct these issues. Understanding your soil’s nutrient profile is essential for planning fertiliser applications.

Tailored PK blends can be formulated from sample results to meet field-specific needs. Fertiliser grades can also be enhanced with micronutrients such as manganese which is crucial for enzyme activity and protected phosphate to minimise nutrient lock-up.

Soil sampling also complements other tools like grain nutrient analysis, providing a complete picture of soil health. Additionally, it ensures compliance with the Farming Rules for Water and  Sustainable Farming Incentive requirements, optimises nutrient management and boosts yields by maximising nutrient uptake, leading to better overall crop and soil performance.