What does 2026 hold for UK farming?

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Openfield experts explore what changes may be coming in 2026 and how it could impact agriculture – and provide an update on fertiliser availability.

As we embark on 2026, I do wonder what direction it will take and what the buzz words will be, writes Cecilia Pryce, Openfield’s head of research, compliance & shipping. Certainly 2025 was packed with uncertainty created by tariffs and the ongoing politics and conflicts, but on paper, regardless of everything, it looks like the world will have enough crops. Things can still change as the Southern Hemisphere harvests get cut, but most in the UK are now looking towards 2026.

How 2026 will pan out is currently anyone’s guess – with the UK and the EU trying to agree amendments to the SPS (Sanitary and Phytosanitary) system we may find the list of available chemicals
may change alongside other unintended consequences, largely to help delays at borders  created by Brexit. Similarly, we will need to understand any new SFI schemes and how they will impact  that is grown and what tonnage of crops we will have in the coming years.

Change needs managing and before anything is instigated the expected outcomes must be fully understood. Unfortunately, many changes are made before the full impact has been modelled and  modelling relies on understanding the individual players and the environment or market itself. This is largely where the problem lies because one thing which is certain is that all farmers are different and for everyone who thinks something will work there will be others who don’t, because there’s no fixed model farm and probably never has been. This issue, matched with full exposure to world grain commodity prices and other instigated trade rules, be they taxes or indirect phytosanitary restrictions, makes many aspects of agriculture and trade difficult to manage.

Back in the 1990s when the EU fully controlled trade and supported prices, they also had issues that led to over-production and grain mountains – but, with so many different farmer support schemes and trade barriers globally, is it really possible to gauge whose agricultural policy is better than whose? Is there a happy, fairly paid arable farmer anywhere in the world and if so, where are they and how are they supported and by whom? And how do the various support systems affect the world price of commodities?

Cheaper grains and oilseeds are being exported from countries with lower yields than the UK and higher logistic costs, but their farmers are still farming. The fact is, all farmers globally are unique but each country’s governments should have mastered that ‘uniqueness’ by now and worked out where they need to help and where market forces lead the way.

Unfortunately, the UK handed the responsibility to Brussels for many years, but post- Brexit in January 2020, nobody created a team of individuals who really understood UK agriculture and  ould create an agricultural policy fit for all sectors. This lack of investment in building a long term agricultural policy remains the problem, leaving farming to those who can afford to and by default putting our food production in jeopardy.  Maybe survival of the fittest was the policy but in 2026 someone may just realise that UK agriculture needs leadership!

Fertiliser matters

Concerns remain in place over the volume of fertiliser left to purchase and be delivered in time for spring applications, notes fertiliser manager Lucy Hassall. Ammonia, required to produce UK  nitrogen, has remained firm in price on the back of global shutdowns and curtailments, resulting in higher pricing and a firm outlook for the new year. For any buyers holding off in the hope of  softer pricing, it looks unlikely that this will happen before late spring.

European nitrogen markets have been trading at higher levels, making homes there more attractive than exports to the UK, where we are behind on imports versus the previous year. Europe was  active with purchases in late Q4 partly due to their CBAM coming in from 1st January 2026, securing requirements ahead of any potential price increases and this activity has contributed to firmer prices in general.

As soon as requirements are known, it would be advisable to secure purchases for the earliest available delivery window to ensure product arrives in good time, as suppliers will deliver on a first come, first served basis.